Next week’s prime-time Republican presidential debate will feature 11 candidates, including surging businesswoman Carly Fiorina, CNN announced Thursday.
Fiorina, front-runner Donald Trump, and other Republican candidates will gather Wednesday at the Ronald Reagan presidential library in Simi Valley, Calif., for the second debate of 2016 election cycle, this one sponsored by CNN.
In addition to Trump and Fiorina, the 8 p.m. ET session will include Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul.
An earlier debate, at 6 p.m. ET, will feature Republicans who have finished outside the top 10 in an aggregate of polls: Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal and George Pataki.
“Thursday marked the close of the two-month window for determining eligibility based on averages of national polls,” CNN said in a report.
The latest piece of bad news for Hillary Rodham Clinton came in the form of a Quinnipiac poll out of Iowa on Thursday morning: Bernie Sanders, 41 percent. Clinton, 40 percent. Clinton has dropped 11 points in two months in the state and now one in three self-identified Democrats say she is not honest or trustworthy.
The poll numbers come just days after NBC and Marist College released twin surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire that also spelled trouble for Clinton. She led Sanders in Iowa 38-27 — less than half her lead in a July NBC/Marist poll. In New Hampshire, Sanders led Clinton 41-32 — a 20-point shift from where the race stood in July.
Then there’s this “crowd” shot from a Clinton event Thursday in Columbus, Ohio:
Not exactly a packed house for @HillaryClinton women’s event in Columbus. pic.twitter.com/uDB4U0MZ8M
Memo to Clinton-world: It might be time to start panicking.
I know it’s Sept. 10. I know there won’t be a vote of any sort until mid-January — at the earliest. I know that Clinton remains solidly ahead in national polling. I know that Sanders is not Barack Obama. I know that the Q poll has missed before — most notably in the Iowa Senate race in 2014 when it had the contest tied and Joni Ernst won by nine points. I know that Clinton has yet to begin spending heavily on TV in either of the first two early-voting states. And I know that Sanders has yet to demonstrate any ability to appeal to non-white Democratic primary voters.
But I also know that there is now a realistic — if not strong — chance that Sanders will win the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. And that Vice President Biden enters the race and circles the South Carolina primary as his place to take down Clinton (and Sanders). Add those things up and there’s plenty of reason for some stomach-churning at Clinton’s Brooklyn headquarters.
Iowa has always been a bit of a sleeping giant for Sanders, given that the Democratic caucus electorate is far more liberal than the state as a whole and has shown an unwillingness to fall in line with Clinton (in the 2008 campaign, for instance, when she finished third). It’s also worth remembering that Bill Clinton never competed actively in Iowa in 1992 because of the native-son candidacy of Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin. There never has been a deep and abiding connection between the Clintons and Iowa. Hillary Clinton is working to combat that reality with pure manpower; she now has 78 staffers in the state and has a state woman leader in each of the 99 counties.
In New Hampshire, Sanders always has been a problem for Clinton because of geographic familiarity. The NBC/Marist poll is, in fact, only the latest in a series of polls that show the senator from Vermont with a steady edge. The Real Clear Politics average of polling in the Granite State gives Sanders an edge of more than seven points — and the trend line doesn’t look good for Clinton.
Yes, everything beyond those two states — South Carolina, Nevada and then the slew of Super Tuesday states — looks good for Clinton. Today. But who’s to say what political cost Clinton might pay for losing the first two states to Sanders with Biden, potentially, waiting to ambush her in the Palmetto State?
Remember how Rudy Giuliani was just going to let the first three states play out before making his mark by winning the Florida primary in 2008? He was irrelevant long before the vote turned to the Sunshine State. The first states to vote inevitably impact how the race is covered and, therefore, how voters (and donors) regard it. Front-runners need to win; otherwise they aren’t front-runners anymore.
That’s especially true for Clinton, who has been rightly described as the biggest non-incumbent front-runner in the history of the modern presidential primary process. Does anyone really think that if she lost Iowa and New Hampshire to Sanders that there wouldn’t be calls for her to leave the race or, at a minimum, a panicked search by the Democratic establishment for an alternative? (Biden, anyone?)
Now, it’s uniquely possible that we are looking at the nadir of Clinton’s numbers. Her straight-up apology this week for having used a private e-mail server when she was secretary of state suggests that she may finally be listening to advisers (and donors) who see the issue causing major erosion in her numbers. She will heavily outspend Sanders — on TV and in on-the-ground staff — between now and the Iowa caucuses. She remains a favorite to become the Democratic nominee. If you are betting man or woman, she’s (still) your person.
But, the monthly release of e-mails she sent at the State Department will continue through the rest of this year, keeping the issue swirling in the news. And momentum, once lost, is very hard to get back. All of the momentum is with Democratic candidates not named “Hillary Clinton” at the moment. It’s got to be a nervy time around Clinton HQ.
In her defense she has a family legacy to maintain, (I did not have sex with that woman)
Influential radio host Steve Deace says he will quit his job if Donald Trump carries the evangelical vote in the Iowa Caucus.
If Donald Trump gets 32% of the evangelical vote in Iowa on Feb. 1 I will quit my job. Not happening. https://t.co/Rr0oe7uHsH
— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) September 10, 2015
Deace, a prominent Iowan conservative, has previously endorsed Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in the GOP primary.
“In my view, he’s what we’ve been waiting for,” Deace said. “He’s an end to the false choice between principles and electability.”
A Monmouth University poll released Aug. 31 found that retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson holds the edge in the Hawkeye State among evangelicals with 29 percent support, compared to Trump’s 23 percent support.
The same survey has Carson and Trump tied for the overall lead in the state at 23 percent support each, followed by former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina in third with 10 percent support, Cruz with 9 percent support and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker with 7 percent support.
El Niño is strong and getting stronger and it will be a factor for weather patterns across the globe well into Spring 2016, according to an important update out Thursday.
What is most interesting to me, is trying to figure out how strong it will be during the critical October to December time frame. This is important because we need El Niño to be very strong and close to records in order to give us a better link to a wet winter for all of California. If it is anything less than very strong you can get muddled results. Some years are wet, and some end up being dry in parts of California. The good news is that we are on the very strong path, in some ways we are in record territory and everything that creates stronger El Niño conditions are still chugging along.
The first thing to look for is Westerly Winds close to Papua New Guinea. Typically, the trade winds blow East to West across the Pacific at the equator. That’s why hurricanes off Mexico typically form and move out to sea to the West. This creates a pool of warm water near Asia. When the winds reverse, that warm water moves the other way, some of it is pooled subsurface and makes a slow migration all the way back to South America. We call this a Kelvin Wave and it’s a key indicator of what will happen with El Niño in the coming months.
Kelvin wave could El Nino up a notch. (Photo: TAO NOAA)
Right now we have a monster Kelvin wave that is just starting to show signs of surfacing near South America. We can measure what’s going on under the surface with a series of buoys that measure the water temps at depth. When the warmer water hits the surface it warms the air above, adds more humidity and creates more water vapor available to future storms.
In the past, it was difficult to forecast what would happen next with El Niño, but with the added satellite data and real time ocean buoy data we have a much better idea. If the Kelvin wave was weak or non-existent I would be worried about El Niño, but as you can see, it’s a big one.
The backbone of El Niño is strong and all the signs point to a stronger El Niño in the coming months.
It’s worth pointing out that early impacts of El Nio are already being felt for the planet. Drought in Asia, water rationing in the Philippines, drought and water rationing in the Caribbean, drought in Papua New Guinea, blockbuster winter rain and snow in Chile, and early harvest in Kenya have happened already.
In other words they do not have a clue if going to help Kalifornia…….